[6 May 2023] Tsai Ming-yen had not spoken in public since assuming assumed the post of Director-General of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB) in February of this year. His public silence ended last Thursday, when he spoke to an audience of graduating students at Taiwan’s National Chung Hsing University in Taichung City. According to reports, it was the first time in a quarter of a century that an NSB director-general had addressed a university audience.
In addition to his speech at the Chung Hsing University, Director-General Tsai, a former deputy foreign minister and diplomat, gave a rare interview to the United States-based Bloomberg news agency. He refused to weigh in on the ongoing discussion about a timeframe for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But he singled out the year 2027 as a significant one for Chinese Premier Xi Jinping’s plans to modernize the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
The Chinese leader first introduced his “PLA Modernization 2035” plan in 2017, describing it as a whole-of-government effort to significantly improve the PLA’s combat capabilities as a step toward achieving China’s long-term goal of becoming a major global military power. Tsai pointed out that the year 2027 will be the 10-year mark into President Xi’s 18-year program of military reforms. Additionally, Xi will most likely be campaigning for a fourth presidential term that year, Tsai said.
In his interview with Bloomberg, Tsai said that President Xi “doesn’t allow any kind of different voice in the Chinese political system”. In essence, therefore, the Chinese leader has been surrounding himself with “a coterie of like-minded officials”. This resulting ‘groupthink’ means that “the risk of making a wrong decision” on pressing issues like Taiwan “will become much higher” in the coming years, he warned. To counter that threat, and to monitor China’s military intentions, Tsai said Taiwan is systematically deepening its real-time cooperation with its “international friends”, especially with the so-called “Five Eyes” alliance, an intelligence-sharing coalition comprising of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
The potential developments surrounding China’s PLA modernization and President Xi Jinping’s political ambitions in 2027 could significantly impact the geopolitical landscape, challenging the West’s position and prompting strategic recalibrations to address the evolving dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. A more capable and technologically advanced Chinese military could potentially challenge Western military dominance in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond, leading to a shift in the global balance of power.
It follows that a more assertive and capable Chinese military could enhance China’s ability to project power and influence beyond its immediate region. The West has strong alliances and partnerships that have been critical to maintaining stability and security in Southeast Asia. If the PLA’s modernization efforts lead to increased regional assertiveness or potential conflict scenarios, the West’s alliance relationships may be tested, requiring careful diplomacy and coordination.
Ultimately, China’s increasing military prowess could have implications for international norms and rules governing security and conflict. Obviously, neither the NSB nor its director-general determine policy. That is the realm of political decision-makers in Taiwan and beyond. We do hope these decision-makers are paying attention. The West may need to engage on numerous fronts, to ensure that the PLA’s actions align with established norms and to prevent potential destabilization. [EIA]