[31 March 2022] In the field of intelligence, success is always an ephemeral concept. It is here one day, gone tomorrow. Constant vigilance is required to ensure that accomplishments are more than fleeting moments in time. Take the example of the French intelligence services. Back in August of last year, many praised the French intelligence community for anticipating —and preparing for— the Western coalition’s chaotic exit from Afghanistan. It was reported at the time that, unlike most foreign intelligence services that were present on the ground in Afghanistan, the French quietly repatriated the vast majority of their citizens in the months prior to the Taliban offensive. They also put in motion a program to evacuate Afghans who were under France’s protection. Thousands of them had been evacuated by the time Taliban battalions entered Kabul in August. That was indeed an impressive performance, by any standards of evaluation.
But, as we said earlier, success is a fleeting concept in the world of intelligence. Fast forward to February of this year and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. By all accounts, the performance of American intelligence agencies in the months leading to August 2021 was disastrous, when it came to the situation in Afghanistan. In the case of Ukraine, the picture was completely different. For many months prior to the Kremlin’s military campaign in Ukraine, US intelligence agencies had been warning about an impending Russian military invasion of Ukraine. Even the Ukrainian government publicly disputed these claims, until they were proven remarkably accurate.
How satisfactory was the performance of the French intelligence community in this case? Not very, judging by recent news reports, according to which General Éric Vidaud, head of France’s Directorate of Military Intelligence (DRM) was fired on March 31. The reason for his firing? Reportedly, his agency’s failure to anticipate the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to French media reports, unlike many other Western countries, the French government appeared to doubt that the Kremlin would indeed invade Ukraine. These doubts, which rested on French intelligence assessments, were dispelled on February 22, when Russian tank units stationed in Belarus rolled onto Ukrainian soil. What a textbook case of success and failure —two sides of the same coin that form the yin and yang of the world of intelligence…. [EIA]