[28 February 2022] On February 24, the largest country in the world invaded the largest country in Europe, marking the opening salvo of the most extensive military conflict in Europe since World War II. A cascading series of domino effects has since ensued, which include the most expensive refugee crisis in Europe’s postwar history.
So far, the conventional theater of this war is unfolding along four major theaters, namely the Russian offensives eastern Ukraine, north of Kyiv, northeastern Ukraine, and southern Ukraine. Russian forces are gradually advancing, but have been met with stiff Ukrainian resistance, as well as substantial—though not insurmountable—self-inflicted deficiencies in the areas of logistics and co-ordination.
It is difficult to over-estimate the significance of the national resistance campaign being waged by the Ukrainian armed forces, reserves, paramilitary units, as well as a growing number of foreign volunteers. However, one should hold no illusions as to the tremendous asymmetry of the two belligerents. The combat-worthiness of the Ukrainian resistance is increasing, but it simply cannot compare with the Russian military, which is designed to take on an adversary like the United States. The war resources, manpower and capabilities of the Russians are superior by many orders of magnitude—and that’s not even counting their unconventional capabilities, which are simply enormous and in many cases exceed the United States’.
That is not to say that this war is going to be predictable. Many factors will play a role, including the levels fighting morale among the rival armies, as well as among the Ukrainian and Russian populations. Additionally, the Russians are clearly lacking in intelligence. The slow pace of Russian advancement, as well as the political and economic debacles that Moscow is facing as a result of this war, are clear indications that the Kremlin has neither enough ears, nor eyes, on the ground in Ukraine. Additionally, Russia is largely blind to developments in Western Europe and beyond. It is likely that the Russians miscalculated, not simply the Ukrainian response to the invasion, but also the Western and American responses, and even the Chinese response.
Intelligence, in addition to a stiff and well-armed physical resistance, is Ukraine’s way out of this nightmare. The United States, with the help of its allies, has shown that it can play a major role as Ukraine’s intelligence partner. Washington warned about the impending war as early as November of 2021, when almost no-one believed it could happen. Even Putin’s own generals were kept in the dark until the last minute. The Central Intelligence Agency knew more about Russia’s intentions than its Russian equivalent. The United States has the capacity and extensive intelligence arsenal to help Ukraine push back against Russia’s political and military advances. Intelligence can save the day for Ukraine and for all of Europe. At this time of peril, it is time to unleash its full power. [EIA]