[1 January 2024] As we usher in the new year, we are pleased to present our latest publication in our Research Paper Series. It is by Dr Stephan Blancke, an expert on the intelligence and clandestine activities of North Korea and China, who is currently an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in the United Kingdom. Dr Blancke’s paper is entitled “Russian Hybrid Warfare and the Delegitimization of the State: The Case of Germany“.
Dr. Blancke begins his analysis in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, when Europe witnessed a surge in protests against government measures to curb the virus’s spread. He describes the process by which, what initially started as demonstrations by specific occupational groups, gradually evolved into a heterogeneous movement, encompassing conspiracy theorists, esotericists, and extremists. The protests took a dark turn, with politicians and virologists becoming targets of threats and violence, leading the German domestic intelligence service to launch a new focus on what it described as the “Anti-constitutional delegitimization of the state”.
As the pandemic continued, the protests brought together a diverse coalition, ranging from affected occupational groups to anti-vaxxers, esotericists, and rightwing extremists. One concerning aspect was the collaboration between seemingly opposing ideologies, creating a “cross-front”. Extremists on both the left and right found common ground in their fight against ‘the system,’ using issues like COVID-19 measures and mandatory vaccinations to fuel their narrative. For Blancke, the common thread among these groups was their opposition to what they perceived as the erosion of democracy and freedom. The German authorities highlighted that some protests had crossed the line of legitimacy, aiming to undermine confidence in the state system.
The protests lost momentum after pandemic-related measures were eased. However, the author points out that the conflict in Ukraine provided a new rallying point, reinforcing the idea of a Western conspiracy against Russia. Russian influence played a pivotal role, Blancke argues, with online platforms being used to spread disinformation and manipulate discussions. Telegram emerged as a primary hub for propaganda, portraying the West as decadent and advocating for its overthrow. The essay also highlights the blurring lines between leftwing and rightwing extremists, who, despite ideological differences, found common cause in anti-government sentiments.
Blancke cautions that, as winter approaches, concerns over rising energy costs and living expenses could further unite these disparate groups. He points out that the convergence of leftwing and rightwing extremists in protests against perceived injustices poses a significant challenge for law enforcement. He admits that the concept of “delegitimization of the state” has been criticized for its vagueness, but it points to a growing trend that authorities must grapple with.
The article concludes with a forecast of challenges ahead, emphasizing the potential for hybrid warfare. The rise of anti-state movements, fueled by foreign influence and domestic grievances, poses a serious threat to elected governments. The intricate dynamics of these movements demand a nuanced approach from intelligence and security services to safeguard against potential violence and political assassinations.
Dr Blancke’s paper is available in PDF format here. [EIA]