[31 August 2021] August 30th marked the inglorious demise of Operation RESOLUTE SUPPORT and the end of the NATO-led multinational mission in Afghanistan. For several weeks now, some of the “bread-and-butter” terms of intelligence analysis, such as “optimism bias”, “critical thinking”, and even “strategic surprise”, have been appearing with uncommon frequency in the headlines. Obviously, this rare phase will not last long, as the Memento-like nature of the neurotic news cycle will soon draw the media’s attention to other spectacles.
Yet there should be no doubt that the victory of the Taliban in the 20-year Afghan War was a momentous occasion, which will be with us for years to come. At the strategic level, it symbolizes the eternal vanity of America —this lumbering behemoth whose actions are fueled by virtuous ideals and myopic foolishness in almost equal measure. It seems to be the fate of empires to squander their might in ways that puzzle strategists and bewilder historians. In this sense, the predictability of America, as illustrated in its failed 20-year effort to tame the “graveyard of empires” is as unmistakable as it is depressing.
But the defeat of America in Afghanistan will also shape the future of intelligence —and intelligence studies— in our lifetime. Intelligence studies are primarily concerned with the dark “nooks and corners” of tactics and strategy, and seek to shed light on the missing dimensions of security, diplomacy and foreign policy. Therefore, the forensic analysis of the 20-year Afghan campaign will become a laboratory, in which future generations of intelligence scholars and practitioners will —hopefully— sharpen their observational and cognitive skills.
It has been argued by some observers that the Afghan debacle was not an intelligence failure, but rather a disaster of decision-making. Even if that is true, it does not shield the intelligence establishment from the massive and inevitable fallout. Did decision-makers ignore intelligence products that warned them about this impending disaster? If so, why? And what does this mean about the role of intelligence in modern-day decision-making? These are questions that all of us, who are concerned with the present and future of intelligence studies as a discipline, ought to pursue with increasing intensity in these troubled times. [EIA]