[30 November 2021] In an insightful essay that appears in the latest issue of the International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence (Vol. 34, No. 4.), Mark Lowenthal makes a provocative statement: “Intelligence is NOT about telling truth to power”, he claims. Initially, this statement might seem to fly in the face of the decades-long common wisdom in the field of intelligence. After all, intelligence professionals are tasked with finding the truth about critical developments relating to security. If they cannot be expected to uncover the truth about these developments, and then relay it to those in power in a timely mannter, then what on Earth can they do?Yet Lowenthal persists: not only is the idea of “speaking truth to power” wrong in intelligence terms, it is also dangerous, he argues.
The author hardly requires an introduction to those in the field. He entered the world of American academia having previously served as Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and Production, Vice Chairman for Evaluation of the National Intelligence Council, Staff Director of the House Intelligence Committee, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence. Surely, he knows what he is talking about? Indeed he does.
When the process and mission of intelligence are carefully examined, it becomes obvious that they are not about relaying the truth; rather, they are all about relaying uncertainty. Truth, Lowenthal posits, is an absolute. Anyone who has ever worked in intelligence will immediately associate with the view that absolute facts are hard to come by—and even when they appear to do so, they are usually deceiving. Successful intelligence products are nothing other than the delicate handling of real-life uncertainties and ambiguities, which is then delivered in a methodical way. Their purpose is to help decision-makers understand the uncertainties that surround them, and the potential effects—as well as side-effects—of their actions or inactions.
There is nothing fixed or definite in the intelligence process, and certainly nothing that resembles the absolutism of “truth”. In Lowenthal’s own words, “[i]ntelligence is never ex cathedra”. That is precisely why intelligence products tend to be devoid of terms such as “always”, “never” or “everyone”. That is also why—per Lowenthal’s sound advice—good intelligence analysts would do well to remember the advice of the English statesman and military strongman Oliver Cromwell: “think it possible you might be mistaken”.
If intelligence products do not speak the “truth”, then what do they speak? Lowenthal’s proposal is as straightforward as his critique: intelligence products speak honesty to power, he argues, quoting John Moseman, former chief of staff to the US Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet. Unlike truth, honesty is open to challenge, contest and dispute—ultimately to humility. Honesty is open to the possibility that, in Cromwell’s words, its authors “might be mistaken”. Indeed, they often are. [EIA]