[17 July 2022] Few terms in intelligence studies are used as often as “intelligence failure”. The fear of faulty information somehow being at the root of a wrong decision with far-reaching consequences haunts intelligence analysts and the agencies that employ them. And yet, relatively little attention has been paid to the responsibility of decision-makers to take into account the views of intelligence experts.
In an article published on July 3 in the Daily Beast, military writer and former Brown University visiting scholar James A. Warren argues that some of the most destructive intelligence failures in recent American history were in fact failures of intelligence consumers —principally the White House— to take into account informed intelligence estimates in making decisions. These consumers routinely engage in “wishful thinking, disregards professional analysis” and are guided by preconceptions that often damage national security. That view, according to Warren, represents a growing consensus among scholars of intelligence.
Warren illustrates his argument with a number of examples from America’s recent military history, including the disastrous Vietnam War. For years during that war, American intelligence agencies —principally the Central Intelligence Agency— warned against the perils of a prolonged military conflict in Indochina. And yet they were ignored by the Executive Branch. Why? Because, argues Warren, America’s decision-makers could not break free from the —now bankrupt— domino theory, according to which the fall of Vietnam to the communists would lead to the eventual Sovietization of all of Asia.
Ultimately, America failed in Vietnam for the same reason it failed in Iraq and in Afghanistan. In the words of George W. Allen, quoted by Warren, “America failed […] not because intelligence was lacking, or wrong, but because it was not in accord with what its consumers wanted to believe, and because its relevance was outweighed by other factors in the minds of those who made national security policy decisions”.
American decision-makers need to realize that the solution to the problems of terrorism and interstate rivalry are rarely military. Rather, they depend on the wisdom afforded by good intelligence. In Warren’s own words, American decision makers “have been overly enamored by the power of the U.S. military machine, but obtuse in failing to recognize the limits of military power alone to shape politics in foreign societies”. Amen to that. [EIA]