[11 November 2025] Those of us who have long believed in the strength and strategic necessity of the transatlantic intelligence alliance, have been watching recent news with growing alarm. Two disturbing developments suggest a weakening of U.S.–European intelligence cooperation — and Vladimir Putin is watching, smiling, and calculating.
On one side, European intelligence services are increasingly uneasy about their long-term relationship with Washington. According to Le Monde, senior European spymasters attended a Brussels meeting in April where the specter of U.S. unreliability was on full display. The Trump administration’s return and a strategic refocusing of priorities — including a chilling de-emphasis on Russia in the 2025 U.S. Annual Threat Assessment — have fueled fears that the U.S. may no longer view the same adversaries with the same urgency.
Meanwhile, The Guardian has reported a startling rupture in operational cooperation: the United Kingdom has suspended intelligence sharing with the United States over lethal strikes on alleged narco-trafficking vessels. British officials reportedly fear that information they passed on could be used to justify extrajudicial killings — a claim with serious moral and legal implications. These are not routine disagreements. These are cracks in the bedrock of Western intelligence partnership.
Here’s the grim geopolitical calculus: Vladimir Putin knows he cannot beat a unified West. But what if he doesn’t need to? What if he can simply divide it — pick off European countries one by one, exploiting the chasms in their trust of the U.S.? That is exactly what seems to be unfolding. Russia has long used a divide-and-conquer strategy, and now the West’s own disunity is handing Putin powerful leverage. When European intelligence services question whether the U.S. will remain committed, or worse, whether U.S. decisions could undermine European legal norms, they create opportunity for Moscow.
If America is seen as erratic, Europe may hedge, build its own intelligence autonomy, or even realign its threat priorities — while Moscow gains relative freedom of action. This is not idle speculation. The latest realignment trends reflect the very fault lines a calculating Kremlin might exploit. European nations are increasingly talking about “autonomous assessment” capabilities for intelligence — not to break with the U.S., but to guard against being exposed if Washington shifts again.
Make no mistake: the consequences could be strategic and severe. Intelligence cooperation isn’t just about collecting data — it’s about early warning, joint analysis, coordinated countermeasures. A fragmented alliance emboldens Russia to ramp up its subversion, cyber intrusion, and proxy escalation while betting that a fractured West won’t respond in unison.
So who bears responsibility here? There are two parties at fault. First, European leaders must recognize that the threat is existential. Developing more resilient, interlinked intelligence systems is not an optional luxury — it’s essential. The recent pause in intelligence sharing reflects not self-sufficiency, but mistrust born of uncertainty. Second, the United States — Washington has undermined its own credibility. By prioritizing narrow campaigns and alienating traditional allies, it is abandoning the very allies it needs most. The U.S. must restore predictability, reaffirm its commitment to shared security, and rebuild trust in its intelligence partnerships.
If the West cannot reforge that bond now, it risks handing Putin his greatest victory: not on the battlefield, but through division. And in high-stakes intelligence politics, that may turn out to be the most dangerous outcome of all. [EIA]